West Bromwich Albion have been the representatives of the gulf between the Premier League and the second tier in recent seasons. Albion were relegated from the top flight in 2003, 2007 and 2009. In the interceding years, and including last season they were promoted back to the upper tier in 2005, 2008 and 2010. The record clearly sends the message that the club are too good for the Championship, but not good enough for the Premier League.

The teams relegated from the Prem last season were Hull City, Burnley and Portsmouth. Hull spent only two seasons in the EPL and Burnley just one. What are the hopes for the new boys this term? It appears that the established top flight teams are able to become more and more established through their bigger incomes, and increasing reputations. Portsmouth themselves are an excellent example of the reputation factor. They have never been one of the big clubs in the Prem, but once they established themselves in the early part of the last decade, they were able to attract a better quality of player. Burnley and Hull were never able to do this. Whilst West Ham were down there with those two at the end of last season, the Hammers have been back in the EPL for five years now and can still attract relatively big players.

Despite the title of my article, I do have a good feeling for West Brom this year. Manager Roberto Di Matteo, has brought in some experience at the back in Pablo Ibanez, and is fighting off the attentions on his star player Graham Dorrans. He is currently being rumoured to be close to capturing former Baggie, Jason Roberts from Blackburn. Having someone who can potentially give you twenty goals a season up top is a must for any team to survive. Blackpool will fight and fight this year, but they won’t survive. They aren’t equipped to make it in the top flight, and the fact that I can say that with such confidence shows how hard it has become to stay up. What is interesting this season is that we may see a side who have been a round a while come down, as Newcastle too may hold their own on their return. Along with Blackpool, I expect to see Wolves get relegated in their second season, leaving any one from eighteen to bid farewell to the big time.

This season will be a defining season as to how viable promotion from the second tier has become, If West Brom and Newcastle can make their presence felt to stay another year, then the format is still thriving. But if two of the three that went up, come down, and are joined by Wolves or Birmingham, questions need to be asked about the inequality of the current regime. Nobody has a divine right to stay in the Premier League, but they may effectively be being given one, with the access to finances that the Championship clubs do not have.

photo credit: joncandy

I am not sure what the Hull City board is thinking these days. With only 9 games to go this season they let go of Phil Brown and replace him with Iain Dowie.

Now I am not a big Phil Brown. I thought that Hull should have gotten rid of him last season when Hull went months without a win and only avoided relegation on the last day of the season. This season Hull are currently 3 points from safety, but their schedule is such that they a lot of the teams around them in the table. I would say that it was 50-50 that Hull would avoid relegation this season under Brown.

Hill Chairman Adam Pearson believes the odds should be higher than that saying:

“We feel that we’ve got a quarter of the season to go with some winnable games within that. It’s not a fixture list that’s packed full of ‘top four’ games, it’s a fixture list with games where we would expect to get some points. We feel that we’re best served by making the change now. That will bring a fresh face in, some new impetus and some new focus to get those 14 or 15 points that we’re going to need.”

So Pearson thinks Hull can get 15 points out of a possible 27, which is a point per game rate that is double what they have earned all season.

So Hull’s board did not think that Brown could achieve this point total and replaced him with Iain Dowie, who I classify as a professional manager. A professional manager is someone who is not good enough to stay in one place for long periods of time, but for some reason teams keep hiring them. That is Iain Dowie.

Hull say they brought in Dowie because of his experience managing teams at the bottom of the table. You know its never a good sign when your new manager is familiar with battling for relegation.

But a look at Dowie’s record show that he is not successful keeping teams in the Premier League. He previously has managed three Premier League clubs: Crystal Palace, Charlton Athletic, and a brief stint as assistant to Alan Shearer at Newcastle.

He guided Palace into the Premier League in 2004, but they went straight down,  drawing with Charlton 2-2 on the final day of the season and getting relegated by a single point.

Dowie then moved onto Charlton where he lasted just 12 league games (two wins) and left with Charlton bottom of the Premier League. Charlton were relegated that season and have never recovered.

Finally Dowie was number 2 to Alan Shearer last season at Newcastle, who were also relegated.

So what does Adam Pearson see in Iain Dowie that the rest of us don’t? . Looking at Dowie’s record there is no indication that Dowie will be an improvement over Phil Brown and I expect another Dowie side to get relegated this season, which might make him the most unsuccessful manager in Premier League history.

In what has to be considered a shock, Hull City have fired manager Phil Brown with nine games left in the season. Hull are currently second from bottom in the Premier League, three points from safety.

Hull chairman Adam Pearson said in the statement that:

“Hull City AFC confirms that Phil Brown has been relieved of his managerial duties at the club and has been placed on gardening leave with immediate effect. Brian Horton and Steve Parkin will take charge of first-team duties until further notice. We would like to place on record our sincere thanks to Phil for the major success achieved during a period of four seasons in charge at the club and wish him every success for the future. Promotion to the Premier League in 2008 and retention of our status on the last day of the 2009 season are unique events in the history of Hull City AFC and both were achieved under Phil’s stewardship during a period which will never be forgotten by all connected with the club. However, retention of Premier League status is paramount and the board believes that a change in managerial direction is the correct option at this time. The club will keep supporters completely up-to-date in respect of any managerial appointment but, in the meantime, Brian Horton and Steve Parkin will prepare the team for our important game at Portsmouth next Saturday.”

Brown was unhappy with Hull’s decision to relieve him of his duties saying in a statement released through the League Managers’ Association:

“I am obviously very disappointed with the club’s decision and the fact that I will now not have the opportunity to secure Hull City’s status in the Barclays Premier League for a third consecutive season. Although I am extremely sad to be leaving Hull City, I am very proud of my achievements during my time as manager, especially having led the team into the top flight of football for the first time in the club’s 104-year history and ahead of schedule. It has been a fantastic experience and I would like to offer my sincere thanks to all of the players, past and present, and also to my staff. Finally, I would like to thank the fans for their support and wish the club every success in the future.”

The surprise is why now? With only nine games to go in the season and a trip to Pompey on Saturday, there seems to be more to this story than has been told at the moment.

For the second time in four days, Chelsea struggled away to a team in the relegation zone. Unlike on Saturday there was no late rescue as Chelsea were held to a 1-1 draw with Hull City.

The draw left Chelsea on 55 points, three clear of defending champion Manchester United. Both teams have played 24 games, the same as third-place Arsenal, which was another four points back and at Chelsea on Sunday. Hull, one of four sides on 21 points near the foot of the table, remain in the relegation zone on goal difference

Defender Steven Mouyokolo gave Hull a surprise lead in the 30th minute and, although Didier Drogba equalized 12 minutes later with his 20th goal of the season, Chelsea was unable to convert concerted pressure into more goals.

On the back of the news that Portsmouth has a transfer ban, comes news that Hull’s accountants have raised concerns over the club’s “ability to continue as a going concern” should they be relegated from the Premier League.

The latest Hull report covers the year ending 31 July 2008, when Hull made a loss of nearly £10million as they won promotion to the Premier League via the play-offs. While Hull’s directors remain confident that the numbers will be better after a full season of Premier League revenue, Deloitte is not so sure.

The auditors report read:

“These forecasts demonstrate that in order to operate within the company’s finance facilities Hull City AFC will need to generate a surplus £23million during the next 12 months through player trading, match day and commercial income and/or through additional finance raising. In the event that the club retain Premier League status for the 2010-11 season, the additional funding required for the 12 month period will be in the region of £16million. This is reduced as a result of the guaranteed level of Premier League distributions that will be received. As is common with all football clubs, Hull City AFC will make player purchases and sales during the course of the season to manage the company’s cash flow as and when required. The directors acknowledge that player purchases and sales are uncertain in terms of timing and quantum and some uncertainty exists over the availability and quantum of additional facilities should such be required. These conditions indicate the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”

Hull, though, remain confident once the additional revenue from their first Premier League campaign is factored in – worth an estimated minimum of some £40million – then the results for 2008-09 will be more positive. The directors’ statement concluded:

“The financial benefits arising from the Premier League’s broadcasting rights are not recognised until the following financial year, where the losses incurred this year are forecast to be made good. The club are currently in advanced discussions with finance providers for the acceleration of known Premier League distributions for amounts of £7million. These discussions are expected to be concluded in the near future and would reduce the surplus finds required by £7million. The directors have a reasonable expectation that the company have adequate resources to continue in operational existence for the foreseeable future.”

So if I read these comments right, Deloitte says that Hull needs to generate an additional £16million over the next 12 months, if it avoids relegation, £23million if they get relegated. The Hull directors response is that we will get £7million from the Premier League, which decreases the requirements to between £9million and £18million.

Lets assume that Phil Brown is able to somehow keep Hull it for another season. They will still need to raise another £7million in revenue, and the only way to do that is to sell two or three or their best players, which will make survival in the Premier League even harder.

Nickname(s): The Tigers

2008/2009 Position: 6th

2007/2008 Finish: 3rd (Championship)

Coach: Phil Brown (England)

Stadium: KC Stadium (25,404 capacity)

Key Players: Michael Turner, Andy Dawson, Deiberson Geovanni

History:

Hull City was founded in 1904, but it has never really been a major player in English soccer. In fact, Hull had never played in the top flight until this year. They were always dreadfully bad, that is, until this year when they have surprisingly pulled near the top of the table, even though they barely were promoted to the league via a playoff at the end of last season.

The team is chaired by Paul Duffen, who is responsible for their quick turnaround. His promise of investment in players has been a true one, as he has brought in several men who have made Hill City surprisingly competitive this year. He’s also prepared to fund a 7,000 seat extension to the club’s stadium, ensuring future profit margins that will help the squad succeed.

The team is given support at both home and away matches by the Hull City Psychos, a group of its most devoted fans. The Psychos have reason to be insane with joy lately based on Hull City’s early results in the Prem. Many thought they would be a laughingstock, like Derby last year, but they have proved themselves with their grit and determination and survival in the top flight appears probable.

Legends: Andy Davidson, Chris Chilton, George Maddison

American Sports Doppelganger: The Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2008/2009 Prediction: 13th